Grains Update

Grains inched up last week as the realization hit that some of the U.S. crop will be damaged beyond repair after 78% of the U.S. experiences drought conditions. This year’s drought is reported to be the worst in 56 years, causing prices to stay afloat. I would not put on a bearish play in soybeans, corn or wheat unless some very nice yield and weather information is released. We are beginning to discover how the yields have been affected from this summer’s weather.

Earlier in the month, the USDA released a report that corn yields would fall to 6 year lows of 10.78 billion bushels. Now markets are taking time to adjust to the new supply. Although the corn crop yield is considered relatively difficult to heal, there is still some hope for the soybean crop. Soybean yields in late-planted areas could improve if rain sweeps across the U.S.

I am looking to go long spreads in corn, and putting slightly more conservative plays in soybeans as the crop is more likely to heal.

This morning corn futures were trading up 1.13% to $8.0740, soybeans were up .97% to $16.8720 and Wheat was trading down .21% to $8.7260.